Asset allocation

Q&AAsset allocation
Joey Ting asked 4 years ago

Hi PC
 
May I ask what is your recommended asset allocation between ETF and physical precious metals (if you only have the choice between ETF and physical precious metals)? One of my friends owns 100% physical precious metals as he is not comfortable with ETF. He says something like ETF is a game by ??? to allow them to own physical precious metals before you could do so. Another friend allocate 75% in physical precious metals. Thank you.
 
If financial crisis does happen, will all trading activities be suspended for months and our equities being locked up?
 
A Singapore friend goes to the extreme of storing up food ration in the event of collapse. He’s army trained by the way. 

2 Answers
pcwong Staff answered 4 years ago

Owning physical is still the best option if you want to own gold. But of course there is the question of storage. ETF is just another alternative to keeping physical just like a gold or silver savings account. However, these are paper assets. Major gold and silver ETFs are sometimes lambasted by physical hoarders because they lend their physical to the bullion banks to sell – which also allows them short.
But ETFs do rise with the price of precious metals. But if you have no problem with storage or security issue do keep some physical.
Miners are still the best bet. For example gold price has risen almost 30% but some miners have risen more than 150% during the same period.
Will the stock market stop trading in the event of a major crisis? The stock market was closed on 3 occasions which was during the Great Depression, World War 2 and 9/11. But closure was limit to just a few days. Trading was resumed thereafter.
Should the US market close indefinitely, it will result in a bank run,financial collapse, and the end of US bond sales as markets will totally avoid the US. Then the US would truly be bankrupt.
But investment is often about managing risks, so it is always prudent to take profit when your target is reached. The way I look at it, the EU would likely to collapse due to a banking crisis which will move investors interest into gold, silver, miners and related ETFs and US assets, until the US too face a crisis of its own. Already US bond yields are collapsing, which is indicating that the US will soon find herself in a crisis.
What could likely happen is more QE and central banks print trillions more in the next crisis. It could lead to hyperinflation because fiat currencies have lost their value. In a hyperinflation, those who borrow money for investment, ie: properties, will bear the brunt because of escalating interest rates. The last global hyperinflation during the 1970s saw Malaysia interest rates reaching double digits.
But if hyperinflation indicators start to show, then it is worthwhile to stock up key essentials and necessities as a precaution, but need not go overboard as though it s the end of the world. Such a scenario would most likely occur in the US where gun ownership is high.

Ghee wei Koh replied 4 years ago

Hi PC

In your opinion, considering the rising crisis in EU, Japan & US, will Malaysia be spiral into hyperinflation which then cause escalating interest rates?

Ghee wei Koh replied 4 years ago

Hi PC

In your opinion, considering the rising crisis in EU, Japan & US, will Malaysia be spiral into hyperinflation which then cause escalating interest rates?

pcwong Staff answered 4 years ago

In the next crisis, the central banks will print even more money and lower interest rate. They follow the playbook of Kynesian economics.
In the Fed terms, they are now raising interest rates because they already said that they worry they have no tools in the ext crisis. So their main tool will be reducing the interest rate.
However in the next crisis, QE4 will be even bigger than QE 1- 3 added together due to the excessive debt.
So for a while there could be low interest but what comes next will be hyper inflation.
In the last hyper inflation interest rate in the US rose to 15% and gold rose by 325%.
So it is important that you keep some physical gold or silver and have a little bit of bitcoin. Bitcoin however is highly volatile but in the next hyper inflation people would have lost confidence in fiat currency and therefore may see some panic buying of gold, silver and bitcoin.
Ye above items will help to protect your wealth. Next, investing in gold and silver miners will give the leverage to to multiple profit gains.
Have an insurance in allocating about 10% in some inverse ETFs so that in items of crisis their returns will allow you to  cash out with the funds to buy stocks on the cheap. 
Always remember to invest within your means.
As for MYR, our Bank Negara will follow what goes on in the US. in the 1970s our FD was 12% and loan interest was about 15%.
Hope this helps.